Homecoming vs. UCF is a must-win for Dave Aranda & Baylor Football
BY Craig Smoak | 365 Sports
The Bears hit a fresh low in 2025, with an all-too-familiar routine last Saturday in Cincinnati. Down 24-0, they mounted their usual comeback to make things interesting, only for their own mistakes to compound and ensure an almost doesn’t count defeat.
NOW OR NEVER
If the Bears have any hope of salvaging the season, it will need to happen on Homecoming weekend. Or else, risk a change by Monday. I’m not big on declaring must-wins, but this feels as close to a must-win as imaginable. You fall to an average-at-best UCF squad, at home, then I don’t know how one could expect anything else.
TURNOVERS
It’s an ongoing issue that is directly affecting outcomes—both their inability to hold onto the ball and their failure to take it away. The Bears are -9 in turnover ratio, good enough for a national ranking of 128/134. Their 16 total turnovers this season include nine lost fumbles and seven interceptions. The former is much more problematic and concerning. Meanwhile, they’ve recovered only two fumbles and picked off five passes through eight games. I understand that not every respectable defense feasts on turnovers, but that’s practically starving football-wise.
HOMECOMING CROWD
I’m interested in seeing the attendance. Perhaps there will be a good turnout. After all, it’s still Homecoming weekend, when many return to revisit their roots, and a tradition that’s especially rooted deep in Baylor history, given that’s where it was initially celebrated. But, given the malaise surrounding the team, and uncertainty about UCF’s drawing power. If the regulars were ever to rally one more time for the cause, it would be this game, with a beatable opponent and everyone returning to town. But I’m not holding out hope. If UCF were a big draw like Oklahoma or Texas, that would be one thing, but the Knights are not that, despite the Fiesta Bowl bitterness. On the flipside, I’m not sure what kind of turnout to expect from the Knights contingent either, though they apparently have a strong alumni base in Dallas.
THE 2025 KNIGHTS
This UCF team is scrappy and has dealt with recurring QB injuries, keeping the position constantly in flux. Tayven Jackson originally emerged as QB1, only for an AC joint injury to derail his progress at various turns. Thanks to the bye week, he’s as healthy as ever and apparently ready to roll for a second straight game. His presence makes a night-and-day difference for this offense from a scoring perspective. RB Jaden Nixon, a Texas native, is a dangerous big-play threat with the ball in his hands on offense and special teams. Myles Montgomery is a reliable and talented back. But this team’s greatest strength is its defense, led by DC Alex Grinch, whom the Bears saw up close from 2019-2021 at Oklahoma. UCF boasts a top-ten passing defense nationally, allowing less than 150 yards per game and only five scores through the air in eight contests. But they’re also stingy up front, despite losing a talent like Lee Hunter to Texas Tech oil money this offseason.
HISTORY VS. UCF
This weekend marks the Knights’ first trip to Waco and just the third meeting overall between these programs. From Baylor’s point of view, there was the initial gathering, aka the 2013 Fiesta Bowl disaster. And then in 2023, the Bears’ first trip to the Bounce House, which saw them score 29 unanswered, including a 26-point fourth-quarter outburst, to snatch an improbable but thrilling 36-35 come-from-behind victory in UCF’s first Big 12 home game. Based on the small sample size, there’s a better-than-average chance for some chaos in this game. Then again, it’s also a Big 12 game, so one should always expect chaos.
MASON MILLER EXIT
Whatever led to Miller’s dismissal is the kind of inside scoop that subscription message boards are initially meant to house. The Bears, and in particular the offensive line, have no choice but to move forward, as they did without Miller last Saturday. It certainly wasn’t an inspired performance. I assume this must be incredibly difficult for his guys, but that’s the kind of curveball the game and life will throw you. Right now, I don’t know the specific details and won’t pretend to, but it’s just unfortunate in general.
DAVE ARANDA
There’s plenty of speculation about his future, and for my money, a loss this weekend would be near impossible to overcome.
PREDICTION
Baylor 37, UCF 27 – As I said above, this is a must-win for the Bears and also Dave Aranda. Despite their struggles and inconsistencies, I think the Bears are, at their best, a superior, more talented team. Playing at home should always matter, but at this point, and as mentioned above, I’m not sure what to expect in terms of support. If there is an advantage team-wise, it’s only slight. Execution and ball security will be pivotal, per usual. So too will heart and care factor.